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Chart courtesy of longwaveanalyst.ca Kondratieff Cycle According to the studies of longwaveanalyst.ca there are four "seasons" in this 50 - 60 year long cycle, Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter. Spring Stock prices perform well in the Spring with recovery in the economy as well. The last Spring phase was from 1949 to 1966. Summer The beginning of the inflationary summer is indicated by a peak in the spring bull market in stock prices (Last summer 1966 - 1981). The end of summer primary recession is caused by the cycle peak in interest rates. This recession is one of the four indicators signaling the beginning of the huge autumn stock bull market. Autumn Four events occur at the end of summer and anticipate the beginning of autumn: 1) A peak in prices 2) A peak in interest rates 3) A bear market in stocks 4) A primary recession It's the period of rampant speculation in real estate, bonds and especially stocks (1982 - 2000). Winter Beginning signaled by the peak in the prices of the large autumn stock bull market. The purpose of the winter is to cleanse the economy of debt via payback, liquidation and usually bankruptcy. This process creates tremendous stresses to the economy and financial system. (2000 --- >) The next Spring should again bring growth and prosperity. |
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