Stock Market Today – Charts & Commentary Aug. 2016



The market is on the doorstep of entering a historically weak part of the year, with the Sept. trading month coming up next week. This at a time when Volatility – VIX daily seems to prepare for a move higher, as it formed a Pin reversal bar Friday, at a trendline it earlier managed to overcome. Important trendline resistance is up around the 23 level, in case the market takes a dive this Fall.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 89.8 from July’s 90.4, lower than the expected 91 reading from economists. With a potential Fed rate hike in Sept. which could spook the market, it could lead to an even lower consumer confidence and with it, more pressure on the economy.

On the OEX weekly chart, strong support comes in around 932, produced by a trendline drawn through important peaks from 2015. If reached, weekly momentum should be oversold at that point, so the odds of seeing a reaction up from that area are good.

S&P 100 BPI (Bullish Percent Index) daily Sentiment chart.


After several attempts, the market is still struggling to overcome the difficult 3/8th MML barrier, mentioned in previous updates. Because of this, the market is in a vulnerable position to instead fall back for support.

This is also indicated by the weakening daily NYSE Summation Index trend indicator and also weekly momentum now turning clearly bearish, despite prices more or less holding up, as the 3 recent weekly closes have been at nearly the same level.

This has also resulted in a ranging VIX daily with Volatility probably going for another test of support next week. But with that test, Sentiment should also reach stiff trendline resistance by then.

So all in all, personally i’m waiting for the market to come out of this consolidation phase and give more clues as to where it’s heading next.

S&P 100 BPI (Bullish Percent Index) daily Sentiment chart.

The Neural Net System is Short on the OEX weekly.



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